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What
is currency trading?
While trade is international, currencies are national. As
international transactions are settled in global currencies which are brought
/sold against one another and this constitutes, “Currency Trading”.
Factors
affecting the exchange rate of a currency:
A country’s currency exchange rate is typically affected by
the supply and demand for the currency in the international forex market. The
demand and supply dynamics is principally influenced by factors like interest
rates, inflation, trade balance and economic & political scenarios in the
country. The level of confidence in the economy of a particular country also
influences the currency of that country. These days the capital inflow and
outflow play a major role in the exchange rate.
Why Currency Futures?
Small Size:
Volume of single lot in currency derivatives is only approximately Rs.50000,
whereas equity and commodity futures which sometimes go above Rs 1 lac. This small size will
help in greater participation as even small retail clients can trade in this.
Low
Volatility: Central bank vigilance and high volume make the currency
markets very stable. Further currency markets are open round the clock and it
is matter of time only when our currency markets will also be round the clock.
This helps in minimizing gap ups and gap downs and better management of risk by
brokers as well as clients. You can’t loose big money in this.
Low Margin: Due to low
volatility the margin required is only 2-3% against 5-10% in commodities and
15-20% in equities leading to low cost of trading.
Averaging Opportunity: Due to
absence of very strong directional moves which happens in equities and
commodities, currency markets are much more disciplined. Thus trades can
average their positions, and take benefit of small up n down.
Lower Cost of Trading: Low
margin, low brokerage and transparent prices make this market very cost
effective.
Easy Accessability to all:
Currency market through banking system is only accessible to importers and
exporters whereas this futures market is available to any body with small
margin of Rs.1000 on a single lot .This is first time in India that retail
participants can take part in the currency trading.
Focused Trading: Currency
trading is very focused in the sense that majority of trading worldwide take
place only in 5-6 major Currencies like us Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, sterling
Pound, Swiss France, Canadian dollar, Australian Dollar etc. This provides
greater depth as there are not hundreds of scripts to watch as in equity.
Lastly, due
to near perfect nature of this market, technical analysis tools work best in
currency markets, providing opportunities to sophisticated speculators to trade
here.
Currency futures trading: A tool to combat price fluctuation risk
We need currency futures if our business is influenced by
fluctuations in currency exchange rate. If you are in India and are importing
something you have done the costing of your imports on the basis of a certain
exchange rate between the Indian rupee and the relevant foreign currency. By
the time you actually import the value of the Indian rupee may have gone down
and you may lose out on your income. In terms of Indian rupee by paying higher. On the contrary if you are exporting
something and the value of the Indian rupee has gone up, u can earn less in
terms of rupee than you have anticipated. Currency futures help you hedging
against this exchange rate risk.
Model
situation:
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Exchange-traded currency futures are used
to hedge against the risk of rate volatilities in the foreign exchange
markets. Here, we give two examples to illustrate the concept and mechanism
of hedging:
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Example 1:
Suppose an edible oil importer wants to import edible oil worth USD 100,000
and places his import order on July 15, 2008, with the delivery date being 4
months ahead. At the time when the contract is placed, in the spot market,
one USD was worth say INR 44.50. But, suppose the Indian Rupee depreciates to
INR 44.75 per USD when the payment is due in October 2008, the value of the
payment for the importer goes up to INR 4,475,000 rather than INR 4,450,000.
The hedging strategy for the importer, thus, would be:
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Current Spot Rate (15th July
'08)
Buy 100 USD - INR Oct '08 Contracts on 15th July ’08
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:
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44.5000
(1000 * 44.5500) * 100 (Assuming the Oct '08 contract is trading at 44.5500
on 15th July, '08)
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Sell 100 USD - INR Oct '08 Contracts in
Oct '08 Profit/Loss (futures market)
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:
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44.7500
1000 * (44.75 – 44.55) * 100 = 20,000
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Purchases in spot market @ 44.75 Total
cost of hedged transaction
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:
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44.75 * 100,000
100,000 * 44.75 – 20,000 = INR 4,455,000
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Example 2:
A jeweller who is exporting gold jewellery worth USD 50,000, wants protection against
possible Indian Rupee appreciation in Dec ’08, i.e. when he receives his
payment. He wants to lock-in the exchange rate for the above transaction. His
strategy would be:
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One USD - INR contract size
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:
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USD 1,000
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Sell 50 USD - INR Dec '08 Contracts
(on 15th Jul '08)
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44.6500
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Buy 50 USD - INR Dec '08 Contracts in
Dec '08
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:
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44.3500
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Sell USD 50,000 in spot market @ 44.35
in Dec '08 (Assume that initially Indian rupee depreciated , but later
appreciated to 44.35 per USD as foreseen by the exporter by end of Dec '08)
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Profit/Loss from futures (Dec '08 contract)
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50 * 1000 *(44.65 – 44.35)
= 0.30 *50 * 1000
= INR 15,000
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The net receipt in INR for the hedged
transaction would be: 50,000 *44.35 + 15,000 = 2,217,500 + 15,000 =
2,232,500. Had he not participated in futures market, he would have got only
INR 2,217,500. Thus, he kept his sales unexposed to foreign exchange rate
risk.
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Contract specifications
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Underlying:
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The exchange rate in Indian
rupees for us dollars
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Trading hours:
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9.00Am to 5.00 PM( Monday to
Friday)
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Contract size:
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USD 1000
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Price Quotation :
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INR per 1 USD
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Tick Size:
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INR 0.0025
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Contracts:
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All months with a maximum maturity of 12
months
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Settlement Mechanism:
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Cash settled in
Indian rupees
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Final settlement rate:
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RBI USDINR
reference rate
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Last trading day: Two working days prior to the last
business day of the expiry month at 12 noon.
Final settlement date: Last working day of month
,expect saterday,It will be same as that for interbank settlement in mumbai.
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